Monsoon 2026: IMD Forecasts Below-Normal July Rainfall Despite Expected Revival This Week
New Delhi, July 1 (Forever News): After one of the driest Junes in more than a century, the southwest monsoon is expected to regain momentum during the first week of July, bringing relief to several parts of the country. However, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has cautioned that overall July rainfall is likely to remain below normal, raising concerns over the ongoing kharif sowing season.
India recorded its fifth-driest June since 1901. The IMD forecasts a revival in monsoon activity this week but says July rainfall is likely to remain below normal, impacting agriculture and water resources.
India recorded its fifth-driest June since 1901, with rainfall nearly 40 per cent below the long-period average (LPA). The delayed and sluggish progress of the monsoon affected agricultural activities across several states, particularly the sowing of rice, cotton, soybean and maize.
The IMD said the southwest monsoon has now advanced into the remaining parts of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar, parts of Uttar Pradesh, most of Uttarakhand, and parts of Himachal Pradesh and Ladakh. Conditions are also becoming favourable for its further advance into Gujarat and adjoining regions.
Meteorologists expect rainfall activity to increase from July 2 onwards, especially over Maharashtra, central India and parts of northwest India, helping reduce the existing rainfall deficit. While the first week of July is likely to witness normal to above-normal rainfall in many regions, the month’s cumulative rainfall is still expected to remain below average.
The IMD has also issued heavy rainfall alerts for Kerala, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and several northeastern states. Delhi-NCR is likely to receive light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms as the monsoon advances further north.
Weather experts attribute the weak start to the monsoon to the strengthening El Niño conditions over the Pacific Ocean, which typically suppress rainfall over India. Although the Indian Ocean Dipole remains neutral, the evolving El Niño pattern could continue to influence rainfall distribution during the rest of the season.
Despite the slow start, improved rainfall during the first half of July is expected to support agricultural activities, improve soil moisture and provide much-needed relief to farmers across key agricultural regions. www.forevernews.in
