The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released an updated Long-Range Forecast for the 2025 Southwest Monsoon season, predicting above-normal rainfall across most of the country. According to IMD’s projections, seasonal rainfall during June-September is expected to be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of +4%, signaling a strong monsoon season beneficial to India’s agriculture and water resource management.
Regionally, Central India and the South Peninsular region are anticipated to receive above-normal rainfall, while Northwest India will experience normal levels, ranging from 92-108% of LPA. Northeast India, however, is expected to see below-normal rainfall, estimated at less than 94% of LPA. The Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), which covers India’s key rainfed agricultural regions, is also set for above-normal precipitation, offering a positive outlook for the Kharif cropping season.
For June 2025, the forecast projects above-normal nationwide rainfall exceeding 108% of LPA, with most areas receiving adequate monsoon showers. However, certain southern parts of the Peninsular region, alongside pockets in Northwest and Northeast India, may experience below-normal rainfall levels.
Temperature trends indicate that normal to below-normal maximum temperatures will prevail across much of India, while above-normal maximum temperatures are expected in parts of Northwest and Northeast India. Minimum temperatures are likely to remain above normal nationwide, except for Central India and adjoining southern Peninsula, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are forecast.
IMD will continue monitoring weather patterns and provide further updates, aiding agricultural planning, water resource management, and disaster preparedness throughout the season.
