GST passage can lead to 8% GDP growth over next few years: Report


Singapore: Leading credit risk research firm S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday said that passage of the GST (Goods and Services Tax) bill can lead to India’s eight per cent GDP (gross domestic product) growth over the next few years.

According to the firm’s report “Asia-Pacific Steadies While China Goes Silent”, “India’s GST passage gives us additional conviction around our 8%-ish GDP growth forecast over the next few years.”

“The GST passage is arguably the most important structural reform to date by the Modi government, and will improve efficiency, cross-state trade, and tax buoyancy.”

The report pointed out a trend of reasonably firm pick-up in Asia-Pacific’s macro momentum indicators.

“Retail sales offer the clearest sign of pickup and is currently above trend in most of the region’s economies,” the report said.

“This stems from rising incomes, which, in turn, is part of the region’s evolving growth dynamics, with consumption playing a larger role.”

The report elaborated that trade momentum in Asia-Pacific region– both exports and imports — has been on the rise.

“On the flip side, despite decent growth and relatively easy monetary conditions, there is little or no evidence of price pressure in the region,” the report said.

The report said that credit growth in the region has been broadly contained despite concerns about the effects of record-low interest rates.

“Given the region can still generate decent domestic demand-led growth with only moderate credit expansion, offers some degree of comfort in light of a number of high-profile credit-fuelled excess investment episodes,” the report added.


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